Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/54166 
Year of Publication: 
2010
Series/Report no.: 
WIDER Working Paper No. 2010/101
Publisher: 
The United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), Helsinki
Abstract: 
Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modelling framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US$2 to US$7 billion during 2003 - 50. Our analysis identifies improved road design and agricultural sector investments as key 'no-regret' adaptation measures, alongside intensified efforts to develop a more flexible and resilient society. Our findings also support the need for cooperative river basin management and the regional coordination of adaptation strategies.
Subjects: 
climate change
biophysical and economic outcomes
general equilibrium modelling
Mozambique
JEL: 
O55
Q54
ISBN: 
978-92-9230-338-9
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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