Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/55272 
Year of Publication: 
2012
Series/Report no.: 
Kiel Working Paper No. 1753
Publisher: 
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), Kiel
Abstract: 
Releases of the GDP are subject to revisions over time. This paper examines the predictability of German GDP revisions using forecast rationality tests. Previous studies of German GDP covering data until 1997 finds that revisions of real seasonally adjusted GDP are predictable. This paper uses a newly available real-time data to analyze the revisions of real seasonal adjusted GDP, of nominal unadjusted GDP, of the seasonal pattern, and of the GDP deflator for the period between 1992 and 2006. We find that the revisions of the nominal unadjusted GDP are unpredictable, but that the revisions of the price adjustments are predictable. Nevertheless, revisions of real seasonally adjusted GDP are hardly predictable and less well predictable compared to earlier studies. This lower predictability seems to be linked to the finding that revisions of seasonal adjustments are hardly predictable, too, and that their predictability decreased over time.
Subjects: 
real-time data
GDP revisions
noise
news
forecasting
seasonal adjustment
price adjustment
JEL: 
C82
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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