Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/180442 
Year of Publication: 
2018
Series/Report no.: 
IZA Discussion Papers No. 11424
Publisher: 
Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Bonn
Abstract: 
Good public policy needs to be evidence based. However, the evidence base is thin for many policy issues. How can policy makers best respond to such thin areas of research that are also quite likely to change over time? Our survey investigates the evolution of the econometric evidence base for 101 economic issues, drawing upon 42,578 effect sizes (mainly elasticities and correlations) from 4,300 econometric studies. We evaluate the performance of six approaches to early research assessment: the simple unweighted mean; the median; the Paldam, "divide by 2" rule of thumb; the unrestricted weighted least squares (WLS) weighted average; the PET-PEESE meta-regression correction for publication bias; the weighted average of the adequately powered (WAAP); and WAAP-WLS. Lowest prediction errors are found in the Paldam rule of thumb and WLS. WLS typically reduces the initial exaggeration of thin evidence by half.
Subjects: 
WLS
meta-regression
thin evidence
WAAP
Paldam rule of thumb
JEL: 
C1
H00
H5
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size
942.38 kB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.