Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/219111 
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 8293
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
This paper provides a critical review of models of the spread of the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) that have been influential in recent policy discussions. It notes potentially important features of the real- world environment that the standard models do not incorporate and discusses reasons why estimating critical parameters is difficult. These limitations may bias forecasts and lead forecasters to overstate confidence in their predictions. They also provide social scientists with opportunities to advance the literature and enable improved policies. This paper also discusses how optimal policies might depend on what is learned from new data and models.
JEL: 
C02
I10
I18
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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