Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/230674 
Autor:innen: 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2021
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Discussion Paper No. 2021/6
Verlag: 
Freie Universität Berlin, School of Business & Economics, Berlin
Zusammenfassung: 
Using new quarterly U.S. data for the past 120 years, I show that sudden reversals in equity and credit market sentiment approximated by several measures of corporate securities issuance are highly predictive of banking crises and recessions. Deviations in equity issuance from historical averages also help to explain economic activity over the business cycle. Crises and recessions often occur independently of domestic leverage, making the credit-to-GDP gap a deficient early-warning indicator historically. The fact that equity issuance reversals predict banking crises without elevated private credit levels, suggests that changes in investor sentiment can trigger financial crises even in the absence of underlying banking fragility.
Schlagwörter: 
Corporate securities issuance
market sentiment
nancial fragility
banking crises
recessions
JEL: 
E32
G01
G32
G41
N11
N12
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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