Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/237751 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. TI 2021-018/VI
Publisher: 
Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam and Rotterdam
Abstract: 
We study the dynamic impact of Covid-19, economic mobility, and containment policy shocks. We use Bayesian panel structural vector autoregressions with daily data for 44 countries, identified through sign and zero restrictions. Incidence and mobility shocks raise cases and deaths significantly for two months. Restrictive policy shocks lower mobility immediately, cases after one week, and deaths after three weeks. Non-pharmaceutical interventions explain half of the variation in mobility, cases, and deaths worldwide. These flattened the pandemic curve, while deepening the global mobility recession. The policy tradeoff is 1 p.p. less mobility per day for 9% fewer deaths after two months.
Subjects: 
Epidemics
general equilibrium
non-pharmaceutical interventions
structural vector autoregressions
coronavirus
Bayesian analysis
panel data
JEL: 
I18
C32
E32
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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