Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/258554 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Citation: 
[Journal:] Journal of Risk and Financial Management [ISSN:] 1911-8074 [Volume:] 14 [Issue:] 9 [Article No.:] 450 [Publisher:] MDPI [Place:] Basel [Year:] 2021 [Pages:] 1-7
Publisher: 
MDPI, Basel
Abstract: 
Threshold cointegration is introduced as an econometric technique to model the impact of trade disruptions on spatial price transmission in commodity markets so that market participants and policy makers can understand the global impact of trade disruptions on prices. The threshold cointegration technique that is employed is flexible in that it allows the number of thresholds and their location to be determined endogenously and the threshold variable to be exogenous to the system. We innovate on the threshold cointegration technique by selecting a measure of trade disruptions as the threshold variable. This innovation can be used for any commodity market that is spatially connected due to arbitrage; however, to illustrate its usefulness we apply the technique to trade disruptions for canola traded between Canada and China using weekly data between 2014 and 2019 and find that canola trade disruptions between Canada and China impacted global price transmission and resulted in market fragmentation.
Subjects: 
canola
commodity prices
threshold cointegration
trade disruption
JEL: 
C32
F1
Q11
Q17
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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