Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/264373 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Series/Report no.: 
ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 657
Publisher: 
Asian Development Bank (ADB), Manila
Abstract: 
Severe disruptions in school education during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has impacted children through their formative years which will affect their employment opportunities and earning potential for many years after school ages. This paper examines the medium-to-long-term economic scarring effects, using data available through the Global Trade Analysis Project, a computable general equilibrium model, with empirical study focusing on the impact of school closures on economic growth and employment. The estimated results show significant declines in global gross domestic product (GDP) and employment. Moreover, the losses in global GDP and employment increase over time. Declines in global GDP amount to 0.19% in 2024, 0.64% in 2028, and 1.11% in 2030. In absolute terms, the cost to the global economy in 2030 alone is $943 billion. The scarring effects are greater in economies with significant student populations from rural areas, those in the poorest and second wealth quintile. Learning and earning losses are also significant in economies where the share of unskilled labor employment in the overall labor force is high.
Subjects: 
school closure
labor productivity
economic growth
employment
JEL: 
I25
J24
P46
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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