Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/266009 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 9974
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
Can one single political leader influence macroeconomic expectations on a global scale? We design a large-scale survey experiment among influential economic experts working in more than 100 countries and use the 2020 US presidential election as a quasi-natural experiment to identify the effect of the US incumbent change on global macroeconomic expectations. We find large effects of Joe Biden's election on growth expectations of international experts, working through more positive expectations about trade. The electoral outcome particularly affected the expectations of Western allies and increased global economic uncertainty. Our findings suggest important political spillover effects in the formation of macroeconomic expectations.
Subjects: 
US presidential elections
politicians
economic expectations
economic experts
survey experiment
causal inference
JEL: 
A11
D72
O11
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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