Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/267117 
Title (translated): 
The cyclical adjustment procedure of the German debt brake
Year of Publication: 
2022
Citation: 
[Journal:] Wirtschaftsdienst [ISSN:] 1613-978X [Volume:] 102 [Issue:] 11 [Publisher:] Springer [Place:] Heidelberg [Year:] 2022 [Pages:] 822-825
Publisher: 
Springer, Heidelberg
Abstract: 
Im Koalitionsvertrag der Bundesregierung ist festgehalten, dass die Details der Schuldenbremse und vor allem die Regeln zur Bestimmung des Produktionspotenzials überprüft werden sollen. Insbesondere die Methodik zur Berechnung der konjunkturellen Defi zite wird diskutiert, da diese entscheidend für das mögliche Maß an Neuverschuldung ist. Welche Eigenschaften eine solche Methodik haben sollte, ist umstritten. Ein grundsätzlicher Kritikpunkt des aktuellen Verfahrens ist die Revisionssensitivität und Prozyklizität, was tendenziell dazu führt, die konjunkturellen Defi zite zu unterschätzen.
Abstract (Translated): 
The cyclical adjustment procedure of the debt brake is one of the most important elements of the German deficit rule. The cyclical adjustment enables governments that are borrowing to take account of current business cycle developments: In economic upturns, the scope for net borrowing shrinks, and in downturns, it grows. Recently, various aspects of this procedure have been criticised. We argue that methodical reforms to the estimation procedure can reduce revisions and are better suited to quantify estimation uncertainty. However, revisions cannot be completely avoided. In our view, improving the estimation method with a lagged consideration of revisions seems appropriate for fiscal policy. In contrast, the technical component of the cyclical adjustment procedure should not be the starting point for a political reorientation of the German debt brake.
JEL: 
E32
E62
H62
C10
E60
O40
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
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Document Type: 
Article

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