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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2022
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
DIW Discussion Papers No. 2027
Verlag: 
Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW), Berlin
Zusammenfassung: 
We examine the additivity of stock-market expectations over different time intervals. When asked about a ten-year interval, survey respondents expect a stock-price change that is not equal to, but closer to zero than, the sum of their expectations over two shorter time intervals that cover the same ten years. Such sub-additivity is irrational in that it cannot stem from aggregating short-term expectations. Model estimates show that the pattern is consistent with a time perception where shorter time intervals have a proportionally larger weight. We also find that the respondents' degree of additivity is correlated with making larger financial investments.
Schlagwörter: 
Expectation Formation
Time perception
Sub-additivity
Super-additivity
JEL: 
D01
D14
D84
D9
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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