Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/271828 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 10184
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
This paper quantifies the impact of online vaccine skepticism on pediatric vaccine uptake and health outcomes. We propose a novel methodology that combines Natural Language Processing and an instrumental variable strategy that leverages the intransitivity of the social network's connections. By matching the universe of Italian vaccine-related tweets for 2013-2018 with vaccine coverage and preventable hospitalizations at the municipality level, we find that a 10pp increase in anti-vaccine sentiment causes i) a 0.43pp decrease in coverage of the Measles-Mumps-Rubella vaccine, ii) additional 2.1 hospitalizations among vulnerable populations per 100,000 residents, and iii) an 11% increase in the relevant healthcare expenses, equivalent to 7,311 euros. Drawing on the results of a simulated model, we further show the importance of targeted interventions to counter misinformation and improve vaccine uptake.
Subjects: 
social network
Twitter
vaccines
controversialness
polarization
text analysis
JEL: 
I18
D85
L82
C81
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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