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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2023
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 10327
Verlag: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Zusammenfassung: 
We provide experimental evidence that core intertemporal choice anomalies – including extreme short-run impatience, structural estimates of present bias, hyperbolicity and transitivity violations – are driven by complexity rather than time or risk preferences. First, all anomalies also arise in structurally similar atemporal decision problems involving valuation of iteratively discounted (but immediately paid) rewards. These computational errors are strongly predictive of intertemporal decisions. Second, intertemporal choice anomalies are highly correlated with indices of complexity responses including cognitive uncertainty and choice inconsistency. We show that model misspecification resulting from ignoring behavioral responses to complexity severely inflates structural estimates of present bias.
Schlagwörter: 
complexity
hyperbolic discounting
present bias
bounded rationality
noise
cognitive uncertainty
JEL: 
C91
D91
G00
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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