Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/272491 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
IZA Discussion Papers No. 15864
Publisher: 
Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Bonn
Abstract: 
We estimate the effect of winning a mayoral election on long-run licit earnings, which plays a key role in the selection of local political leaders. We use Italian administrative social security data from 1995 to 2017 and a sharp regression discontinuity design based on close elections. Over a 15-year horizon, the average present discounted value of winning an election is equal to 35,000€, or 85 percent of the annual labor and social security earnings for the average candidate in our sample, a modest effect driven by the compensations for political service and concentrated during the first five years after the election. Net of compensations for service, this effect is negative during the first ten years after the election, and almost fades away afterwards. Differences in the political careers of winners and runners-up and a two-term limit rule on mayors' office contribute to explain our results.
Subjects: 
returns to office
political selection
revolving door
rent-seeking
close elections
JEL: 
D72
J44
J45
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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