Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/273732 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper No. 20/2023
Publisher: 
Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt a. M.
Abstract: 
As part of the Eurosystem's annual banknote production planning, the national central banks draw up forecasts estimating the volumes of national-issued banknotes in circulation for the three years ahead. As at the end of 2021, more than 80 per cent of euro banknotes in circulation (cumulated net issuance) had been issued by the national central banks of France, Germany, Italy and Spain ('4 NCBs'). To date, the 4 NCBs have been using ARIMAX models to forecast the banknotes issued nationally in circulation by denomination ('benchmark models'). This paper presents the structural time series models developed by the 4 NCBs as an additional forecasting tool. The forecast accuracy measures used in this study show that the structural time series models outperform the benchmark models currently in use at each of the 4 NCBs for most of the denominations. However, it should be borne in mind that the statistical informative value of this comparison is limited by the fact the projection period is only twelve months.
Subjects: 
euro
demand for banknotes
forecast of banknotes in circulation
structural time series models
ARIMA models
intervention variables
JEL: 
C22
E41
E47
E51
ISBN: 
978-3-95729-951-2
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.