Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/274602 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2023
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Working Paper No. 2/2023
Verlag: 
Örebro University School of Business, Örebro
Zusammenfassung: 
We analyse micro-level data concerning four financial variables in Sveriges Riksbank's Prospera Survey to evaluate the accuracy of forecasts provided by professionals active in the Swedish fixed-income market. Our results indicate that for the SEK/EUR and SEK/USD exchange rates, and the five-year government bond yield, none of the market participants that frequently participate in the survey manage to significantly outperform the random-walk forecast. For the central bank's policy rate, the market participants typically have a statistically significant higher forecast accuracy than the random-walk forecast at the three-month horizon; however, at the two- and five-year horizons, the random-walk forecast typically outperform the market participants.
Schlagwörter: 
Out-of-sample forecasts
Exchange rates
Interest rates
JEL: 
E47
G17
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

Datei(en):
Datei
Größe
1.7 MB





Publikationen in EconStor sind urheberrechtlich geschützt.