Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/278192 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Series/Report no.: 
Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies Working Paper No. HEIDWP21-2022
Publisher: 
Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva
Abstract: 
In this study, we apply the Kalman filter to estimate the set of reduced-form Phillips curves for different types of inflation in Ukraine. Based on the estimated models, we derive a number of series of non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) that provide information about the general trajectory and last tendencies of trend unemployment. To better identify the unemployment trend, we include indicators of long-term unemployment and the Beveridge curve shifts as exogenous variables in the NAIRU equation. Both variables demonstrate a significant impact on NAIRU dynamics. Our estimates show that the Phillips curve slope in Ukraine lies in a standard range of -0.3 to -0.5, with high statistical significance. The median value of estimated NAIRUs was at its lowest at 7.2% at the end of 2008, after which it gradually increased to 9.4% by the end of 2021.
Subjects: 
Phillips curve
unemployment
NAIRU
Kalman filter
Beveridge curve
JEL: 
E24
E31
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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