Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/279249 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 10499
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
This paper studies China's four-fold increase in per capita GDP relative to the U.S. between 1995 and 2019. First, we argue that China's growth pattern is very similar to that of several other East Asia economies that initially grew very quickly. Second, we show that a minimalist Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model with a parsimonious TFP catch-up process can account for China's growth path and the growth paths of other East Asia economies at a similar stage of development. The growth paths of other East Asia economies and the model predictions suggest that China's growth will substantially slow, so much so that we find the U.S. growth rate will likely be higher than China's by 2043. We also find that China's income per capita will level off at roughly 44% of the U.S. level around 2100.
Subjects: 
China
East Asia
economic growth
Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model
TFP catch up
JEL: 
E10
E20
O40
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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