Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/279263 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 10513
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
In addition to the humanitarian suffering and huge immediate economic costs, the war in Ukraine will have long-term consequences, among which are losses in human capital that will impact aggregate productivity for many years. Exploiting a new stock measure of human capital combining the quality and quantity of education and adult skills, this paper suggests that losses in long-run aggregate productivity operating through the human capital channel could be at about 7% if the war lasts two years. These adverse effects come from school closure and the resulting decline in student learning outcomes and losses in workers' skills, which, without remedial policy action, could persist for decades.
Subjects: 
human capital
productivity
educational achievement
student test score
adult test score
Ukraine
JEL: 
E24
I19
I20
I25
I26
I28
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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