Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/281207 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Citation: 
[Journal:] American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics [ISSN:] 1945-7715 [Volume:] 15 [Issue:] 4 [Publisher:] American Economic Association [Place:] Nashville, Tennessee [Year:] 2023 [Pages:] 217-248
Publisher: 
American Economic Association, Nashville, Tennessee
Abstract: 
We study the dynamic interaction between COVID-19, economic mobility, and containment policy. We use Bayesian panel structural vector autoregressions with daily data for 44 countries, identified through traditional and narrative sign restrictions. We find that incidence shocks and containment shocks have large and persistent effects on mobility, morbidity, and mortality that last for one to two months. These shocks are the main drivers of the pandemic, explaining between 20 and 60 percent of the average and historical variability in mobility, cases, and deaths worldwide. The policy trade-off associated to nonpharmaceutical interventions is 1 pp less economic mobility per day for 8 percent fewer deaths after 3 months. (JEL C43, H51, I12, I18, O15)
JEL: 
C43
H51
I12
I18
O15
Published Version’s DOI: 
Document Type: 
Article
Document Version: 
Accepted Manuscript (Postprint)

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