Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/282454 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 10766
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
Debates about the future of work frequently reference past instances of transformative innovation to preface analysis of how automation and artificial intelligence could reshape society and the economy. However, technological shifts in history are rarely considered in depth or used to improve predictions and planning for the coming decades. In this paper we show that a deeper understanding of history can expand knowledge of possibilities and pitfalls for employment in the future. We open by demonstrating that evidence from historical events has been used to inform responses to present-day challenges. We argue that history provides the only way to analyze the long-term impacts of technological change, and that the scale of the First Industrial Revolution may make it the only precedent for emerging transformations. Next, we present an overview of the current debates around the potential effects of impending labor-replacing innovation. We then summarize existing historical research on the causes and consequences of technological change and identify areas in which salient historical findings are overlooked. We close by proposing further research into past technological shocks that can enhance our understanding of work and employment in an automated future.
Subjects: 
technological change
innovation
automation
future of work
technological unemployment
labor displacement
JEL: 
J23
J64
J81
N31
N33
N71
N73
O31
O33
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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