Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/282567 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 10879
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
This paper investigates the impact of oil price variations on sectoral inflation for a sample of 10 top oil importing and exporting countries. Specifically, we analyze the effects of oil prices on the consumer price index using monthly data spanning the July 2009 to February 2021 period. Two nonlinear techniques are used to this end: The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach (NARDL), and the Hansen's model (2000). Our econometric results first indicate that the effect of oil price on inflation tends to change across sectors and countries. Second, the inflationary effects of variations in oil prices are likely to affect the energy sector, such as transport and equipment, which are the most dependent on oil. Third, the effect of oil price exists for all countries, but it is stronger in oil-importing than in oil-exporting ones. Besides, the country most sensitive to the oil price level is China.
Subjects: 
oil price
sectoral inflation
NARDL
panel threshold model
oil-importing countries
oil-exporting countries
JEL: 
C50
Q40
Q43
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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