Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/284412 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
Arbeitspapier No. 02/2024
Publisher: 
Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, Wiesbaden
Abstract: 
We study the long-run interaction between Germany's economic growth trajectory and demographic aging. Using a comprehensive dataset, we leverage the classical production function approach to estimate potential output growth between 1970 and 2070. We account for the inherent uncertainty in our projections using Bayesian estimation techniques. Overall, Germany's potential output growth up to 2070 will be low if current economic trends persist. In particular, the diminishing labor volume, coupled with sluggish total factor productivity and investment trend growth, contributes to the decline. Our results highlight the significance of demographic factors in shaping economic trajectories and the critical need for policy interventions to mitigate adverse effects. Our analysis can serve as valuable inputs for formulating long-term economic policies.
Subjects: 
demographic aging
production function
potential output
Germany
long-run forecast
economic growth
JEL: 
E13
E17
E23
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.