Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/284618 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
PIDS Discussion Paper Series No. 2023-19
Publisher: 
Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS), Quezon City
Abstract: 
We trace the drivers of the Philippines' fertility decline over the last fifty years culminating in 2022 with a below-replacement 1.9 total fertility rate. Applying a modified Kitagawa-OaxacaBlinder decomposition on the combined experiences of about 65,000 married women in six rounds of the Philippine National Demographic (and Health) Survey, we show that the most effective contraceptives may not necessarily be delaying marriage or raising modern contraceptive use. Our analyses indicate that the greatest driver of fertility decline over the last half century in the Philippines is improving material measures of well-being, with marriage and contraceptive use playing only secondary roles. While raising female fertility in the future may be a possibility, this will not likely go significantly above replacement levels. Population ageing is an imminent reality for the Philippines.
Subjects: 
fertility
population
decomposition
Philippines
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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