Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/285112 
Title (translated): 
Impactos directos e indirectos de las perturbaciones del precio del petróleo en los ciclos económicos de Ecuador (2000:01-2020:01)
Year of Publication: 
2023
Citation: 
[Journal:] Estudios de Economía [ISSN:] 0718-5286 [Volume:] 50 [Issue:] 2 [Year:] 2023 [Pages:] 379-412
Publisher: 
Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía, Santiago de Chile
Abstract: 
We analyse the non-linear relationship between oil price shocks and the real business cycle in Ecuador, a dollarized economy where oil exports are the country's main source of foreign exchange. We estimate several autoregressive Markov switching models for the period 2000:01-2020:01 to identify the differentiated impact of nominal oil price shocks on real GDP in expansion and slowdown regimes. We find evidence that oil price shocks have an asymmetric effect on Ecuador's economic growth, with a larger impact during slowdowns. They also affect all components of aggregate demand differently in each regime, with a larger impact on investment during expansions.
Subjects: 
Business cycle
Oil prices
Nonlinear models
Markov Regime-Switching Model
Ecuador
JEL: 
E32
Q02
F63
O11
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by-nc-sa Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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