Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/289786 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Citation: 
[Journal:] KDI Journal of Economic Policy [ISSN:] 2586-4130 [Volume:] 46 [Issue:] 1 [Year:] 2024 [Pages:] 1-19
Publisher: 
Korea Development Institute (KDI), Sejong
Abstract: 
This paper evaluates explanations for China's growth slowdown. The natural tendency for rapidly growing economies to slow down is a major factor, along with problems bequeathed by unbalanced growth, including a declining ICOR, slowing total factor productivity growth, and rising indebtedness. A number of other mechanisms are of lesser importance: demographics, President Xi's centralization of political power and anti-corruption campaign, and U.S. export controls. Sustaining growth in the longer term will require China to step away from investment, debt and export-fueled growth in favor of a balanced growth model with household consumption playing a larger role. Doing so will require hardening of the budget constraints of regional and local governments and restructuring of the nonperforming debts of property and construction companies.
Subjects: 
China
Growth Slowdowns
Economic Growth
Debt
JEL: 
E02
O10
O11
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by-sa Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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