Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/294171 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Citation: 
[Journal:] International Journal of Water Resources Development [ISSN:] 1360-0648 [Volume:] 40 [Issue:] 3 [Publisher:] Taylor & Francis [Place:] London [Year:] 2024 [Pages:] 448-462
Publisher: 
Taylor & Francis, London
Abstract: 
This study is the first to develop food supply and demand projections over the 21st century for Uzbekistan by considering the combined effects of climate change and soil salinization. The study results suggest that rising summer temperatures and soil salinity will considerably reduce wheat production. Projections indicate that a large wheat supply–demand gap will emerge in the midterm, particularly under the SSP3-RCP7.0 scenario. For the two more pessimistic scenarios, supply losses of about 24–29% are expected by the end of the century. Supply–demand gaps of up to 2.7 million tons of wheat would pose serious challenges to national food security.
Subjects: 
climate change impact
food security
irrigated wheat farming
crop yield simulation
soil salinity
Uzbekistan
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article
Document Version: 
Published Version

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