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Autor:innen: 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2017
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 17-018/II
Verlag: 
Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam and Rotterdam
Zusammenfassung: 
This essay links some of my own work on expectations, learning and bounded rationality to the inspiring ideas of Jean-Michel Grandmont. In particular, my work on consistent expectations and behavioral learning equilibria may be seen as formalizations of JMG's ideas of self-fulfilling mistakes. Some of our learning-to-forecast laboratory experiments with human subjects have also been strongly influenced by JMG's ideas. Key features of self-fulfilling mistakes are multiple equilibria, excess volatility and persistence amplification.
Schlagwörter: 
expectations
learning
bounded rationality
chaos
almost self-fulfilling equilibria
laboratory experiments
JEL: 
D84
D83
E32
C92
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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