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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2017
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 6780
Verlag: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Zusammenfassung: 
The unexpected outcome of the Brexit vote in June 2016 provides a rare macroeconomic experiment to study the aggregate consequences of a sudden change in expectations regarding future economic prospects. Using synthetic control methods, we show that forward looking households and businesses lowered spending in response to the vote, causing an output loss of more than 1 percent. Heightened economic policy and macroeconomic uncertainty explain close to half of the observed output loss. But a large part of the consequences of the vote also reflects a downgrade of expectations about long-run income, not only a wider dispersion of potential outcomes.
Schlagwörter: 
Brexit
European Union
synthetic control method
VAR
anticipation effects
economic policy uncertainty
macroeconomic uncertainty
JEL: 
E65
F13
F42
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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