Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/184435 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2017
Quellenangabe: 
[Journal:] Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe [ISSN:] 2082-6737 [Volume:] 20 [Issue:] 2 [Publisher:] De Gruyter [Place:] Warsaw [Year:] 2017 [Pages:] 91-107
Verlag: 
De Gruyter, Warsaw
Zusammenfassung: 
In this paper we compare the accuracy of unemployment rates forecasts of eight Central and Eastern European countries. The unobserved component models and seasonal ARIMA models are used within a rolling short-term forecast experiment as an out-of-sample test of forecast accuracy. We find that unemployment rates present clear unconditional asymmetry in three out of eight countries. Half the cases there is no difference between forecasting accuracy of the methods used in the study. In the remaining, a proper specification of seasonal ARIMA model allows to generate better forecasts than from unobserved component models. The forecasting accuracy deteriorates in periods of rapid upward and downward movement and improves in periods of gradual change in the unemployment rates.
Schlagwörter: 
unemployment rate
unobserved component
SARIMA models
forecasting accuracy
JEL: 
E23
E2
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