Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/199088 
Year of Publication: 
2019
Series/Report no.: 
GLO Discussion Paper No. 360
Publisher: 
Global Labor Organization (GLO), Essen
Abstract: 
In this paper, we conduct an empirical study of the effect of uncertainty on fertility. The precautionary motive for saving predicts that an increase in uncertainty increases saving by reducing both consumption and fertility. We use a new measure of uncertainty, the World Uncertainty Index, and focus on data from 126 countries for the period from 1996 to 2017. The empirical findings indicate that uncertainty shocks decrease the fertility rate. This evidence is robust to different model specifications and econometric techniques as well as to the inclusion of various controls.
Subjects: 
Fertility
Uncertainty
WUI Index
Precautionary Saving
Business Cycle
Panel Data Estimation Techniques
JEL: 
J13
D81
D14
E32
C33
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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