Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/202989 
Year of Publication: 
2018
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper No. 1815
Publisher: 
Koç University-TÜSİAD Economic Research Forum (ERF), Istanbul
Abstract: 
We estimate the effects of the arrival of 2.5 million Syrian migrants in Turkey by the end of 2015 on the labor market outcomes of natives, using a difference-in-differences IV methodology. We show that relaxing the common-trend assumption of this methodology -unlike recent papers in the same setting- makes a substantial difference in several key outcomes. Despite the massive size of the migrant influx, no adverse effects on the average wages of men or women or on total employment of men are observed. For women, however, total employment falls -which results mainly from the elimination of part-time jobs. While the migrant influx has adverse effects on competing native workers in the informal sector, it has favorable effects on complementary workers in the formal sector. We estimate about one-to-one replacement in employment for native men in the informal sector, whereas both wage employment and wages of men in the formal sector increase. Our findings, including those on the heterogeneity of effects by age and education, are consistent with the implications of the canonical migration model. In addition, increases in prices in the product market and in capital flow to the treatment regions contribute to the rise in labor demand in the formal sector.
Subjects: 
Labor Force and Employment
Wages
Immigrant Workers
Formal and Informal Sectors
Syrian Refugees
Turkey
Difference-in-differences
Instrumental Variables
JEL: 
J21
J31
J61
C26
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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