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Autor:innen: 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2020
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 8335
Verlag: 
Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Zusammenfassung: 
I present a stylized suspected-infected-recovered (SIR) model of COVID-19, with symptomatic versus asymptomatic patients, and social distancing intervention. The optimal suppress strategy has low-infection rates, enabling assumptions that support closed-form solutions. The model predicts high costs of social distancing in comparison to health costs of the disease; it separates public versus private benefits of social distancing, and determines the required level of group immunity for relaxing social distance intervention. I extend the model with heterogeneous population for preferences over social contacts, health costs, and transmission. Heterogeneity in transmission intensity offers most opportunities for reduced costs under a differentiated social distancing policy.
Schlagwörter: 
COVID-19
SIR model
suppression
(differentiated) social distancing
JEL: 
I18
E17
D62
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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