Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/235689 
Year of Publication: 
1986
Citation: 
[Journal:] Konjunkturpolitik, Zeitschrift für angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung [ISSN:] 0023-3498 [Volume:] 32 [Issue:] 5 [Publisher:] Duncker & Humblot [Place:] Berlin [Year:] 1986 [Pages:] 257-281
Publisher: 
Duncker & Humblot, Berlin
Abstract: 
The paper analyzes and tests various quantitative models to assess the probability of default of sovereign debt, such as scoring models, univariate analysis as well as logit models.The outcomes of the different models are not at a level that they could be used for forecasting or rating. There are basically two reasons for this. On the one hand, the paper focussed on ability-to-pay, while a some defaults are done at a time, when the willingness-to-pay was the underlying problem. On the other, there are some country specific issues that have not been considered in testing the models.
Subjects: 
Sovereign Debt
Debt Default Models
JEL: 
C53
C58
F34
G01
H63
Document Type: 
Article
Document Version: 
Digitized Version
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