Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/240330 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2020
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers No. 7/2020
Verlag: 
Bank of Finland, Helsinki
Zusammenfassung: 
We propose a model in which sticky expectations concerning shortterm interest rates generate joint predictability patterns in bond and currency markets. Using our calibrated model, we quantify the effect of this channel and find that it largely explains why short rates and yield spreads predict bond and currency returns. The model also creates the downward sloping term structure of carry trade returns documented by Lustig et al. (2019), difficult to replicate in a rational expectations framework. Consistent with the model, we find that variables that predict bond and currency returns also predict surveybased expectational errors concerning interest and FX rates. The model explains why monetary policy induces drift patterns in bond and currency markets and predicts that long-term rates are a better gauge of market's short rate expectations than previously thought.
Schlagwörter: 
Bond and currency premia
sticky expectations
interestrate forecast errors
JEL: 
E43
F31
D84
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
ISBN: 
978-952-323-326-3
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

Datei(en):
Datei
Größe
603.25 kB





Publikationen in EconStor sind urheberrechtlich geschützt.