Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/244363 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
MAGKS Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics No. 34-2021
Publisher: 
Philipps-University Marburg, School of Business and Economics, Marburg
Abstract: 
We study the announcement effect of legislated tax changes on GDP in the US, Germany, and the UK. Using, as the shock of interest, narratively identified information (Romer & Romer, 2009) about future tax changes at the quarter of their introduction to the legislative body, we analyse the dynamic results of Local Projections (Jordà, 2005). We find hetero-geneous effects across the three countries: economic activity declines (increases) in the US (the UK), but remains unaffected in Germany. When allowing the responses to vary over the business cycle, we find evidence that US GDP drops regardless of the business cycle, whereas UK GDP rises only during non-recessionary times. We find significant effects for German GDP too: it rises (drops) during recessionary (non-recessionary) times. In general, consumption, investment, and employment follow in the path of GDP.
Subjects: 
Fiscal policy
tax policy
legislated tax changes
announcement effect
state dependence
United States
Germany
United Kingdom
Local Projections
narrative approach
JEL: 
E62
E63
H20
H30
K34
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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