Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/245174 
Year of Publication: 
2018
Citation: 
[Journal:] Cogent Economics & Finance [ISSN:] 2332-2039 [Volume:] 6 [Issue:] 1 [Publisher:] Taylor & Francis [Place:] Abingdon [Year:] 2018 [Pages:] 1-22
Publisher: 
Taylor & Francis, Abingdon
Abstract: 
We use a previously unexploited consensus survey data set to compare accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of Current Account growth forecasts between two panels of 25 developed and 18 developing countries following the methodologies in the existing literature. Forecast errors are bigger for the developing country comparing to the developed country. Developed country forecast errors are unbiased but inefficient. The developing country forecast errors are biased but relatively more efficient. In both the panels, forecast revisions are efficient for the same forecast horizons, but inefficient for the adjacent horizons. Additionally, we find less evidence of forecast smoothing compared to some earlier studies. Forecasters do improve their forecasts as the horizons become shorter although the forecasts fall short of being unbiased and efficient statistically.
Subjects: 
forecast efficiency
panel estimation
consensus survey
developing economies
rational expectations
JEL: 
E27
E37
E00
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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