Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/248888 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 9343
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
This paper develops and solves a spatiotemporal equilibrium model in which regional wages and house prices are determined jointly with location-to-location migration flows. The agent’s optimal location choice and the resultant migration process are shown to be Markovian, with the transition probabilities across all location pairs given as non-linear functions of wage and housing cost differentials, endogenously responding to migration flows. The model can be used for the analysis of spatial distribution of population, income, and house prices, as well as for the analysis of the entire dynamic process of shock spill-over effects in regional economies through location-to-location migration. The model is estimated on a panel of 48 mainland U.S. states and the District of Columbia over the training sample (1976-1999) and is shown to fit the data well over the evaluation sample (2000-2014). The estimated model is then used to analyse the size and speed of spatial spill-over effects by computing spatiotemporal impulse responses of positive productivity and land-supply shocks to California, Texas, and Florida. The sensitivity of the results to migration elasticity, housing depreciation rate and local land supply conditions is also investigated.
Subjects: 
location choice
joint determination of migration and house prices
spatiotemporal impulse responses
land-use deregulation
counterfactual exercise
population allocation
productivity and land supply shocks
California
Texas and Florida
JEL: 
E00
R23
R31
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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