Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/248897 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 9352
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
In this study, we look at the association between COVID-19 fatality rate and internal conflict, highlighting the importance of government economic support under the pandemic as a moderating factor. Our main hypothesis implies that increased COVID-19 fatality rates are likely to be positively associated with internal conflict in countries with lower levels of government economic support. Our empirical analysis confirms this prediction: employing cross-country data for more than 100 countries, the estimation results demonstrate that the positive effect of COVID-19 fatality rates on internal conflict may become insignificant with higher levels of government economic support. In countries where government spending in response to the pandemic is less than 5 to 6% of GDP, there is a significant risk of internal conflict resulting from increased COVID-19 fatality rates. Our main findings hold when we control for the effects of other socio-economic determinants relating to pre-pandemic internal political stability and alternative measures of conflict.
Subjects: 
Covid-19
conflict
political stability
fatality
fiscal measures
JEL: 
D74
H51
H53
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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