Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/252005 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 9488
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
Changes in political leadership drive sharp changes in public policy and partisan beliefs about the future. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties, a shift amounting to 1.2 to 2.2% of the national fertility rate. In addition, Hispanics see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical whites.
Subjects: 
fertility
partisanship
elections
JEL: 
J13
D72
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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