Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/254233 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
MAGKS Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics No. 38-2021
Publisher: 
Philipps-University Marburg, School of Business and Economics, Marburg
Abstract: 
The potential impact of climate change on international migration patterns has recently received considerable attention in both the public and academic debate. Yet, much of the empirical literature fails to find increases in international migration due to climate change. The current paper attempts to resolve this "immobility paradox" by applying a real-options framework to the relationship between climate change and international migration. This framework suggests that individuals may postpone their migration response to climate change in the face of uncertainty and only migrate once impacts of climate change have exceeded certain thresholds. I test this prediction using semiparametric regression methods which allow me to empirically identify the threshold effects implied by the real-options framework. However, the findings are generally inconsistent with such threshold effects. Rather, the results suggest that in low-income countries, individuals' migration response is hampered by the existence of liquidity constraints. These are likely to become more binding due to climate change-induced decreases in agricultural productivity.
Subjects: 
change
international migration
real-options
semiparametric methods
JEL: 
C14
F22
Q54
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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