Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/257131 
Year of Publication: 
2020
Citation: 
[Journal:] Economies [ISSN:] 2227-7099 [Volume:] 8 [Issue:] 4 [Article No.:] 82 [Publisher:] MDPI [Place:] Basel [Year:] 2020 [Pages:] 1-20
Publisher: 
MDPI, Basel
Abstract: 
The goals of this paper are first to identify why professional football clubs replace their head coach and, second, to investigate the effect of coach dismissal on team performance. To do that, we propose a new method for assessing the performance expectations of professional sport teams using Monte Carlo simulation. We apply our method to the English Premier league and the French Ligue 1 football teams over the 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 seasons. We find that coach dismissal is the result of a drop in the average expected performance compared with the performance expectations at the beginning of the season. We also show that dismissing a coach may enhance performance only if the team under-performed before the dismissal. There is no obstacle to using the same method for professional teams in other sports. The method is easily reproducible and does not require much information in order to be applied.
Subjects: 
coach dismissal
Monte Carlo simulation
team performance
payrolls
expectations
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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