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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2020
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[Journal:] Risks [ISSN:] 2227-9091 [Volume:] 8 [Issue:] 3 [Article No.:] 80 [Publisher:] MDPI [Place:] Basel [Year:] 2020 [Pages:] 1-25
Verlag: 
MDPI, Basel
Zusammenfassung: 
We investigate the impact of model uncertainty on hedging longevity risk with index-based derivatives and assessing longevity basis risk, which arises from the mismatch between the hedging instruments and the portfolio being hedged. We apply the bivariate Lee-Carter model, the common factor model, and the M7-M5 model, with separate cohort effects between the two populations, and various time series processes and simulation methods, to build index-based longevity hedges and measure the hedge effectiveness. Based on our modeling and simulations on hypothetical scenarios, the estimated levels of hedge effectiveness are around 50% to 80% for a large pension plan, and the model selection, particularly in dealing with the computed time series, plays a very important role in the estimation. We also experiment with a modified bootstrapping approach to incorporate the uncertainty of model selection into the modeling of longevity basis risk. The hedging results under this approach may approximately be seen as a "weighted" average of those calculated from the different model candidates.
Schlagwörter: 
index-based longevity hedging
longevity basis risk
model uncertainty
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