Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/260315 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper No. 2020:23
Publisher: 
Lund University, School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Lund
Abstract: 
What are the political effects of a nuclear accident? Following the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, environmentalist parties were elected to parliaments in several nations. This paper uses Chernobyl as a natural experiment creating variation in radioactive fallout exposure over Sweden. I match municipality-level data on cesium ground contamination with election results for the anti-nuclear Green Party, which was elected to parliament in 1988. After adjusting for pre-Chernobyl views on nuclear power, the results show that voters in high-fallout areas were more likely to vote for the Greens. Additionally, using the exponential decay property of radioactive isotopes, I show a persistent, long-term effect of fallout on the green vote. However, the Chernobyl-related premium in the green vote has decreased substantially since the 1980s. Detailed individual-level survey data further suggests that the results are driven by a gradually decreasing resistance to nuclear energy in fallout-affected municipalities.
Subjects: 
Chernobyl
pollution
voting
JEL: 
D72
P16
Q48
Q53
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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