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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2022
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 9817
Verlag: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Zusammenfassung: 
In this paper we investigate the effect of Donald Trump's campaign for coal in his successful race for the White House in 2016. Using a spatial Durbin model we estimate the effect of coal production on the Republicans vote share in the US Presidential Election of 2016 on the county level. To avoid biased estimates we take spillover effects into account and use spatial clustering. We find a significant positive effect. The effect becomes even more pronounced when we use the vote-share difference between Mitt Romney in 2012 and Donald Trump in 2016 as the dependent variable. The positive effect of coal production on the Republican vote share are retained after allowing for non-linear effects of coal production and using coal production per worker and per working hours as main explanatory variable.
Schlagwörter: 
US Presidential Election 2016
coal production
Durbin model
JEL: 
D72
P16
P18
R11
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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