Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/266120 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Series/Report no.: 
Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies Working Paper No. HEIDWP06-2022
Publisher: 
Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva
Abstract: 
Quantitative models of sovereign debt predict that countries should default during deep recessions. However, empirical research on sovereign debt has found a surprisingly large share of "good times" defaults (i.e., defaults that happen when GDP is above trend). Existing evidence also indicates that, on average, defaults happen when output is close to potential. This paper reassesses the empirical evidence and shows that the detrending technique proposed by Hamilton (2018) yields results that are closer to the predictions of standard quantitative models of sovereign debt.
Subjects: 
Sovereign Debt
Default
Business Cycles
JEL: 
F34
F32
H63
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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