Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/267290 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 10057
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
The U.S. limits work visas for low-skill jobs outside of agriculture, with a binding quota that firms access via a randomized lottery. We evaluate the marginal impact of the quota on firms entering the 2021 H-2B visa lottery using a novel survey and pre-analysis plan. Firms exogenously authorized to employ more immigrants significantly increase production (elasticity +0.16) with no decrease or an increase in U.S. employment (elasticity +0.10, statistically imprecise) across several pre-registered subsamples. The results imply very low substitutability of native for foreign labor in the policy-relevant occupations. Forensic analysis suggests similarly low substitutability of black-market labor.
Subjects: 
immigration
guest worker
H-2B
firms
JEL: 
F22
J61
D22
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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