Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/272850 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Series/Report no.: 
Staff Report No. 1037
Publisher: 
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, NY
Abstract: 
We study the behavior of U.S. consumers' inflation expectations during the high inflation period of 2021-22 using data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations. Short- and, to a lesser extent, mediumterm inflation expectations rose as inflation surged in 2021. Disagreement and uncertainty about future inflation increased significantly. Then, in 2022, even as inflation continued to climb, medium- and longerterm inflation expectations unexpectedly fell and medium- and longer-term deflation expectations increased. We find that respondents with deflation expectations tend to expect prices to mean revert and are more optimistic about the economic outlook.
Subjects: 
inflation
deflation
expectations
consumer surveys
JEL: 
D12
D84
E31
E52
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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