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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2023
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
AWI Discussion Paper Series No. 723
Verlag: 
University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, Heidelberg
Zusammenfassung: 
In density forecasts, respondents are asked to assign probabilities to pre-specifted ranges of inflation. We show in two large-scale experiments that responses vary when we modify the response scale. Asking an identical question with modifted response scales induces different answers: Shifting, compressing or expanding the scale leads to shifted, compressed and expanded forecasts. Mean forecast, uncertainty, and disagreement can change by several percentage points. We discuss implications for survey design and how central banks can adjust the response scales during times of high inflation.
Schlagwörter: 
Inflation
density forecast
experiment
JEL: 
C83
D84
E31
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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