Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/287034 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2021
Quellenangabe: 
[Journal:] Energy Systems [ISSN:] 1868-3975 [Volume:] 13 [Issue:] 2 [Publisher:] Springer [Place:] Berlin, Heidelberg [Year:] 2021 [Pages:] 383-408
Verlag: 
Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Zusammenfassung: 
About 23% of the German energy demand is supplied by natural gas. Additionally, for about the same amount Germany serves as a transit country. Thereby, the German network represents a central hub in the European natural gas transport network. The transport infrastructure is operated by transmissions system operators (TSOs). The number one priority of the TSOs is to ensure the security of supply. However, the TSOs have only very limited knowledge about the intentions and planned actions of the shippers (traders). Open Grid Europe (OGE), one of Germany's largest TSO, operates a high-pressure transport network of about 12,000 km length. With the introduction of peak-load gas power stations, it is of great importance to predict in- and out-flow of the network to ensure the necessary flexibility and security of supply for the German Energy Transition ("Energiewende"). In this paper, we introduce a novel hybrid forecast method applied to gas flows at the boundary nodes of a transport network. This method employs an optimized feature selection and minimization. We use a combination of a FAR, LSTM and mathematical programming to achieve robust high-quality forecasts on real-world data for different types of network nodes.
Schlagwörter: 
Gas forecast
Time series
Hybrid method
FAR
LSTM
Mathematical optimisation
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
Creative-Commons-Lizenz: 
cc-by Logo
Dokumentart: 
Article
Dokumentversion: 
Published Version

Datei(en):
Datei
Größe





Publikationen in EconStor sind urheberrechtlich geschützt.